Author: Eric Cramer, CFP® CFA®
September’s strong jobs report surprised some, but we’ve been telling our clients the economy is fundamentally strong all year. The short version of what we learned with the release of the September jobs report is this: We added 254,000 jobs in September, which is much stronger than the 150,000 consensus forecast.
What does this mean for the economy?
It was widely reported in late August that the BLS had a massive revision downwards in job growth from 3/2023 to 3/2024 (they revise every year). They reduced the amount of job growth by 818,000 jobs, which is one of the largest downward revisions ever. This stoked concerns of a “jobs recession” even though employers are struggling to find workers and other data (such as job openings) confirm a generally strong labor market.
It was less widely reported that in September, real GDP through the end of 2023 was revised up by 1.2%, and 2024 Q2 was revised up .1%. This was mostly due to stronger consumer spending, a metric we have consistently tracked (while also debunking the notion that consumers had run out of money).
It looks like the Fed’s slow pace of lowering rates hasn’t pushed us into a recession. And the Weekly Economic Index (WEI predicts GDP) suggests we aren’t headed for a recession anytime soon.
What does this mean for interest rates?
The strong economy may mean the Fed will take its time lowering interest rates. Current futures pricing shows a 25 bps cut on 11/7 and another 25 bps cut 12/18. Inflation is generally under control, but if energy prices spike due to increased tensions in the Middle East this could affect the data. But it’s safe to expect that we can continue to earn a yield on the short end of the Treasury yield curve that is well above the rate of inflation, and that our Short-Term Tactical strategy will have a useful role to play in client portfolios for the foreseeable future.
At the same time, longer term yields are on the move upwards. If this continues, then we will eventually end up with a so-called “normal” yield curve where investors earn more than the rate of inflation across all terms (even though we haven’t seen much of this for decades). This would be great for investors and businesses, and is what we can expect if the Fed eventually gets to a neutral stance and lets markets be free. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect that by the end of 2025 we have the short end of the curve at about 3-3.5%, with the long end of the curve at 4-6%. But there is a lot going on in the world right now that could change the picture between now and then.
What does this mean for the stock market?
As we’ve been saying all year, a strong economy that doesn’t go into a recession suggests it’s a good time to be a stock market investor. A Fed that is lowering rates, and promises to lower them as much as needed to protect the economy, is called the “Fed Put.” We’ve got that right now, and that’s about all a stock market investor could hope for.
But that doesn’t mean there won’t be some companies that aren’t big losers. Individual stock volatility is still quite high, and we think that will continue. Macro events, along with changes in technology that include the emergence of AI as an essential business tool, will re-order the competitive landscape. Many billions of dollars are being invested in innovation all over the world, and especially in the U.S. This isn’t happening in a vacuum—it’s happening with the explicit intention of changing which companies win, and which fall by the wayside. That makes it a good time to be diversified, and for many investors a good time to look at investment strategies like our Concentrated Stock strategy to manage risk.
We are thrilled to announce that for the third year in a row, BIP Wealth has been recognized by the Atlanta Business Chronicle as one of Atlanta’s Best Places to Work, marking another milestone in our commitment to excellence. This year, we proudly rank #1 for Medium-sized companies, standing alongside other esteemed honorees such as Peachtree Planning Group, Snellings Walters Insurance Agency, and CA South, LLC. This recognition is particularly meaningful as it reflects the trust and satisfaction of our most valuable asset—our employees.
For our team, this accolade is not just about having a great workplace—it’s about the culture we’ve cultivated along the way. Human connection is at the core of our philosophy, both in our client work and within our team. We believe that when our employees feel valued, heard, and supported, they are empowered to deliver exceptional service to our clients.
“We’re honored that BIP Wealth has been recognized for the 3rd year in a row by the Atlanta Business Chronicle as one of the best places to work and this year as #1! Our venture capital firm, BIP Ventures, also made the rankings in their category this year, which is exciting too,” shared Bill Harris, CFP®, Co-Founder and CEO of BIP Wealth. “When Mark Buffington and I started BIP together in 2007, we wanted to create a culture of excellence in service to our clients and our team members at the firm. It’s particularly meaningful to me that both BIP Wealth and BIP Ventures are being recognized for one of our key values… a team-centric approach that fosters an environment of open communication and excellence. Our team supports each other and goes the extra mile for our clients.”
Founded in 2007, BIP Wealth is committed to improving our clients’ financial lives through highly personalized planning and investment strategies including direct and unique access to private market opportunities. Our comprehensive services include wealth planning and management, tax planning, estate planning, and more, and are designed to meet our clients’ current needs and future goals.
“Not only does our team work exceptionally hard for our clients, they’re also all incredible people,” adds Nate Smith, BIP Wealth Chief Operating Officer. “The community that Bill has cultivated within our team, clients and partners makes BIP a very special place to work.”
Servant Leadership: We lead with humility and respect, always putting our clients’ needs first. This commitment to servant leadership enables us to provide holistic wealth management services that strengthen our clients’ financial security.
Collaboration: Our team-centric mindset fosters an environment of open communication, blending our diverse expertise to create optimal financial strategies. We extend this collaborative spirit to our clients, ensuring a transparent wealth management process.
Excellence: We are relentless in our pursuit of growth with excellence, holding ourselves accountable to delivering industry-leading services. Our team guides clients through evidence-based investment strategies while unlocking opportunities in private equity, venture capital, and private credit typically reserved for the ultra-wealthy.
Sense of Community: We foster a sense of belonging within our team and among our clients. By extending our family-first ethos to everyone who interacts with BIP Wealth, we create a strong, supportive community.
At BIP Wealth, we’re not just a company; we’re a community of professionals dedicated to empowering each other and our clients. We invite you to learn more about our team and what makes BIP Wealth a special place or connect with our team. You can also visit us in person at one of our offices in Atlanta, Alpharetta, Columbus, and Nashville.
This recognition from the Atlanta Business Chronicle reaffirms our commitment to excellence, both in the workplace and in the services we provide to our clients. We look forward to continuing this journey together with our incredible team and valued clients.
Disclosure: BIP Wealth paid an application fee to be considered for the list, but the payment didn’t guarantee a place on the list. Companies are categorized by their size and nominated by their employees. Extra Large (500+ employees), Large (100-499 employees), Medium (50-99 employees), and Small (10-49 employees) companies were selected by the publication based on a number of factors, including employee engagement.
ATLANTA — BIP Wealth is proud to announce the hiring of veteran Atlanta Estate Planning Attorney, Sarah Watchko to the role of Estate Planning Advisor. Over the past several years, BIP Wealth has collaborated with and referred clients to Sarah for Estate Planning creation and execution. Sarah will now lead the way in building out this important expertise in-house for BIP clients.
Sarah developed a passion during Law School for working with elderly clients and for clients who have a child with special needs. This was while she was working at the Elder Law Clinic at Wake Forest University in 2007. This led her to discover a career in estate planning, special needs planning, and elder law that could provide both intellectually demanding work and the opportunity to serve and improve the lives of others. Sarah finds immense joy in providing a high level of service, along with a calm and comforting demeanor to those navigating life’s challenges.
As a client of BIP, Sarah and her husband Jeff know firsthand the care BIP has for their clients but she never dreamed of joining the Team. “BIP’s CEO Bill Harris probably asked me about 15 – 20 times to consider joining the firm and I turned him down every time because I was happy in my previous role,” shared Sarah. “However, the more I learned about the role and what it could look like to build this for BIP’s clients from the ground up, it was clear this is an opportunity I couldn’t say no to.”
Sarah is particularly passionate about working with families navigating the complexities of special needs and hopes to elevate BIP as the go-to resource for those families in the Atlanta area. The greatest compliment she can receive is when a client shares, “You’ve taken the worry off my shoulders knowing the people I love most are protected.”
“We are honored that Sarah said yes to joining BIP and building out our Estate Planning Services! The care she provides clients aligns with our firm’s values perfectly,” shared Bill Harris, CFP®, Co-Founder & CEO of BIP Wealth. “I am excited for our future and all the ways this new internal capability will benefit the families at our firm in having peace of mind to be prepared for the future.”
An Atlanta native, Sarah lives in Roswell with her husband Jeff, son, daughter, and their loving mutt, Hank. She and her brother William attended Marist School in Atlanta. Both her brother and husband were collegiate athletes at Georgia Tech who went on to play professionally (the former football and the latter, baseball). Both families remain avid Georgia Tech fans. Sarah loves reading, spending time with friends and family, staying active, travel, and—in her rare free time—squeezing in a craft or baking project.
Author: Eric Cramer, CFP®, CFA®
We’ve seen stock market volatility lately after an extended period of unprecedented calm.
What could cause the markets to erupt like this? Don’t believe the headlines that it was a slower employment report, or even that it was the Japanese “carry trade.” We need a softer job market to relieve some of the pressure employers face when looking for new hires. We’ve known the carry trade (borrowing cheaply from Japan and investing at a higher rate in the U.S. and elsewhere) was ending. The financial media writes these headlines because the human brain needs a “story” to process information, but those headlines aren’t necessarily the most impactful headlines or why we’re seeing such stock market volatility.
We estimate that approximately 70% of all stock market trading volume comes from split-second algorithmic trading. It’s driven by computer programs, and it happens so fast that the role of humans is only to design the trading algorithms (even that is moving to AI) and to oversee things in case the actions of the algorithms get too extreme, and someone has to pull the plug. The regulators have put so-called “stock market circuit breakers” in place to pause, or even shut down, the stock market out of fear that the algorithms can’t be stopped. Many of the algorithms read headlines, look at short-term trends (think of a few seconds as short-term), and then place trades in microseconds. Every once in a while all the algorithms gang up on the market and accelerate the pace of the ups and downs causing stock market volatility.
After months of abnormally calm markets, the most relevant headlines might actually be about how some of the high-flying technology stocks are not hitting their revenue/income expectations. Much of the run-up in tech stocks was probably driven by algorithms, but after a pretty big sell-off, value stocks are stealing the show. Value stocks have a long-term history of outperforming growth stocks, but the day-to-day flips between the two sides of the market are impossible to predict.
It is said in some circles that the Federal Reserve isn’t concerned about the markets and is instead focused on the economy, but this just isn’t true. Ever since the Tech bubble was growing uncomfortably large in the late 1990s (feel familiar?) the Fed has cared a LOT about the value of your portfolio. Ideally, some would say, the Fed would let excessive risk-taking by investors get punished. Healthy markets count on the Fed letting risk and reward be properly priced.
But just as some banks are “too big to fail,” Americans’ portfolios are too big a part of the economic health of the country to let them fail. What the Fed knows is this: if you rescue investors’ portfolios they will spend more, start more businesses, and relieve the government from spending on the social safety net. It is the ultimate “trickle-down” approach to economics and has become unwritten doctrine. The half of the U.S. population without any exposure to the stock market may suffer from the Fed’s actions in the form of inflationary swings, but the investor class gets to benefit from these policies.
The only time the Fed backs away from this approach is when inflation is way too high, which it was over the past couple of years (but isn’t anymore). The Fed went too far in stimulating the economy after the pandemic. And then it was too late raising rates and is now too late in lowering rates. The Fed has been too extreme and too late in every rate decision it has made for twenty-five years, but it has helped investors and it’s going to rescue us again. With rates as high as they are now the Fed once again owns something called the “Fed Put,” which is nothing more than the ability to dramatically lower short-term interest rates to make all risky assets worth more. This will likely start in September, if not sooner, and may even go too far.
Inflation is over; it’s yesterday’s news; it’s a distant memory. The headlines aren’t telling you this yet, but we’ve been saying it all year. This will leave the Fed free to cut rates just as soon as it shows up in the latest economic data.
Here are a few key pieces of evidence for you:
When we manage the BIP Hedged Equity, BIP Hedged Yield, and BIP Concentrated Stock strategies, we use some math to adjust our options strategies, which are the backbone of our approach. That includes referencing the price of expected volatility in the markets (the “VIX”), which recently quadrupled in one week. This means we can generate a LOT of income selling options; we think this is good for our clients. In other words, these strategies were designed for stock market volatility.
But even our primary portfolios can do better in volatile times. If the remainder of this year is volatile, it might just give us the chance to “buy low and sell high” a few times in our clients’ portfolios. Rebalancing is often discussed as a method of risk control, but it can also present opportunities to increase your return. The key principle at play is that it usually makes sense to let the markets “gap down” before buying, and “gap up” before selling.
OK, maybe you need some of your capital to avoid as much stock market volatility as possible. We do have something for you too! You might have used cash for this in the past, but our BIP Short-Term Tactical strategy relies on the extremely liquid Treasury market to offer both liquidity and yield for this part of your holdings. Bank accounts have FDIC limits that can expose savers to theoretically limitless risk for balances above those limits, so putting excess cash to work in the Treasury market where investments are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government could be a smart way to enjoy healthy returns while reducing risk.
Managing that volatility so that it works for you is what having an optimal financial plan is all about. Your Personal Wealth Advisor has a full toolkit of strategies that can be customized for your situation. With all of our public market strategies built around the concept of volatility, just remember this phrase, “Volatility is Your Friend!”
We estimate that approximately 70% of all stock market trading volume comes from split-second algorithmic trading. Many of the algorithms read headlines, look at short-term trends, and then place trades in microseconds. Every once in a while all the algorithms gang up on the market and accelerate the pace of the ups and downs. After months of abnormally calm markets, the most relevant headlines might actually be about how some of the high-flying technology stocks are not hitting their revenue/income expectations. Much of the run-up in tech stocks was probably driven by algorithms, but after a pretty big sell-off, value stocks are stealing the show.
Market indexes gain and lose every day. The larger and more often these price swings happen, the more volatile the markets are said to be. The VIX measures expected volatility.
VIX is a ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the price of expected volatility in the stock market based on S&P 500 index options.
The “Fed Put” is the belief that the Fed will step in to dramatically lower short-term interest rates to make all risky assets worth more and buoy markets if the price of markets falls to a certain level.
This post is provided for informational purposes only. Specific investments may not be suitable for all investors and no offer or recommendation of any investment or investing strategy is intended. The opinions in this commentary are as of the posting date and are subject to change. Information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee the facts cited are accurate or complete. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or investment advice regarding a particular investment or the markets in general, nor is it intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. We may execute transactions in securities that may not be consistent with what is mentioned here. Investors should consult their financial advisor on the strategy best for them. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risks including loss of principal.
BIP Wealth is proud to announce the recent promotion of Jenni Brown to the role of Chief Marketing Officer (CMO). In the CMO role, Jenni continues to spearhead all strategic marketing initiatives for the firm, adding to the groundwork she made as Marketing Director for the past two years, where she advanced BIP Wealth’s reputation as a national leader in the wealth management industry.
“Jenni’s immediate impact to our brand and culture cannot be overstated,” says Nate Smith, COO of BIP Wealth.“ Since she joined our team in 2021, she has worked tirelessly to drive our brand forward by elevating the client experience, improving the office environment, and providing crucial marketing insights. Jenni’s promotion recognizes her tremendous contributions to date and her daily leadership throughout the organization.”
Throughout a career that spans over 20 years, Jenni has spent countless hours building lasting relationships and pursuing meaningful work at organizations such as Passion City Church, The END IT Movement, and Leader Enterprises. Jenni plays a crucial role in planning BIP’s dozens of client events annually, fostering a sense of community within its client base, managing its agency relationship with Marketwake, and revamping all of BIP’s marketing collateral, digital properties—including website and social media presence, and physical environments.
“I am thrilled to have found a home on the team at BIP Wealth where I can continue to grow in my career while serving our team and incredible clients,” shares Jenni. “The emphasis we as a firm put on people first starts at the top and makes for a positive place to work. I feel so lucky and motivated to continue to push our brand forward. As Mark Buffington, Co-Founder of BIP Wealth and CEO of BIP Capital says, ‘BIP Wealth is the best-kept secret in wealth management’ and I want to let more people in on that secret!”.
As CMO, Jenni will leverage her extensive experience in marketing, design, communications, events, and PR to drive brand awareness, enhance engagement with clients, and cultivate meaningful relationships with stakeholders. Her incredible leadership abilities and visionary approach will play a pivotal role in advancing BIP Wealth’s growth objectives in the future and beyond.
The BIP Wealth team is honored to be named in Wealth Management IQ’s “RIA Edge 100” list. The list recognizes wealth management firms that have grown fast while always keeping the needs of their clients top-of-mind.
“We are delighted to be named to the RIA Edge 100 list. On top of recent honors from USA Today and the Atlanta Business Chronicle, seeing our firm’s name on Wealthmanagement.com’s list means everything to us,” Bill Harris, Co-Founder and CEO of BIP Wealth, said. “BIP Wealth’s top priority has and will always be serving our wonderful clients. Our firm’s continued growth is all thanks to the faith they have shown in us to manage their hard-earned wealth.”
Developed by Wealthmanagement.com’s research team in partnership with ISS MI, the list was created using data from the Discovery Data MarketPro platform.
To start, the RIA Edge 100 list is not a traditional award as RIAs cannot apply for this list. Additionally, they are not considered based on factors such as social media popularity or business relationships. The list comes down to the top 100 firms that display healthy growth and a true commitment to serving clients.
This means a lot to our team, as we did not submit anything to be considered for this honor.
“Knowing that BIP Wealth made the list because of our hard work is something to celebrate,” said Harris. “We hope to remain on the RIA Edge 100 list for years to come.”
So, how did BIP Wealth qualify for the honor?
The first metric the Wealth Management IQ research team used was whether the RIAs they analyzed were SEC-registered. Qualifying firms were also required to have high-net-worth individuals as part of their client base and manage at least $500 million in assets.
This metric is important for our team as it helps spotlight our firm’s growth. We’ve grown to $3.3B AUM at BIP Wealth, and are excited and honored to continue growing.
As the RIA Edge 100 list is data-backed, key metrics such as AUM (assets under management) growth over one and five-year periods, the ratio of employees to clients, and the average size of client portfolios were also considered. At BIP Wealth, we are also driven by data. Our wealth-creation engine leverages innovative technology and financial forecasting to help our clients personalize their wealth plans for future success.
At BIP Wealth, we combine precise financial science with the wisdom of industry experts to help our clients grow, manage, and protect what’s most important. For the past few years, we’ve been fortunate to have seen such growth in our assets under management, client base, and staff. From opening new offices in cities like Nashville to growing our BIP Wealth Baseball Division and acquiring a new RIA, we’re excited about what’s in store over the next few years.
“BIP Wealth would be nothing without our amazing clients and we cannot wait to continue serving them,” Harris said. “Making the RIA Edge 100 list will only motivate our team further.”
If you’d like to learn more about our firm or speak directly with an advisor, please reach out to connect with us. You can also check out our resources page to learn more about what’s new at BIP Wealth and in the financial industry.
Disclosure: The data for the ratings was as of 1/1/2024. BIP Wealth did not apply to be considered on the RIA Edge 100 list, nor did they provide any compensation in order to appear on the list.
BIP Wealth, recently named on wealthmanagement.com’s RIA Edge 100, as well as the top 3 on the Atlanta Business Chronicle’s 2023 Best Places to Work list for medium-sized companies, is proud to welcome the addition of former MLB outfielder Jeremy Hermida to its Baseball Division as Business Development Officer. Hermida joins former Pro Baseball players Kyle Schimdt, CFP®; John Hester, CFP®; and Chase Murray in the Baseball Division founded by former Major League Baseball pitcher Jim Poole.
Hermida was the Marlins’ No. 1 draft pick (11th overall) in the 2002 Major League Baseball draft and one of the highest-rated minor league players throughout his 3-year ascent to the MLB. He went on to play professionally for 14 years, 6 of which were in the majors for the Florida Marlins, Boston Red Sox, Oakland Athletics, Cincinnati Reds, and San Diego Padres. He ended his professional playing career in 2015 in Japan with the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters.
Having Jim Poole as one of his personal and professional mentors for 7+ years, Hermida knew he wanted to be more involved with the Baseball Division at BIP Wealth. With his deep admiration and firsthand knowledge of the importance of having exquisite financial advice and guidance, it was an easy ‘yes’ for Hermida to move from being a client of BIP to joining the team. He considers his current role both an honor and a calling.
BIP Wealth’s Baseball Division provides investment management and sophisticated planning solutions geared towards the goals and objectives of draft-eligible, current, and retired professional baseball players and their families. Hermida is uniquely positioned to help guide clients through their journey of life on and off the field.
“BIP is in a class of its own when it comes to client care and expertise, and I am thrilled to be a part of the team,” said Hermida. “Being mentored by Jim Poole helped lead me to where I am today on the team. I started with a few private investment deals as a hobby and became more and more interested after my playing days. I’m so ready for this second career and the chance to take a more hands-on approach to guiding current and former players and their families as they prepare for the future.”
“Jeremy has been a part of the BIP Wealth family for the past 7 years as a client. We’re excited that he’s decided to take this next step in his post-playing life by joining our Baseball Division,” shared Bill Harris, CFP®, Co-Founder & CEO of BIP Wealth. “Jeremy has played baseball all over the world, so he knows first-hand the ups and downs of a professional career. His extensive playing experience and financial aptitude will be a strong addition to our team. The future success of BIP Wealth’s Baseball Divison just took a big step forward.”
Hermida lives in the Dunwoody area with his wife of 12 years, Lindsey, and their son and two daughters. Born and raised in Marietta, Hermida went and married a northern Jersey girl, so you can find them splitting their summer vacations between the south and the north.
Contact Jeremy: Jeremy Hermida, BIP Wealth Baseball Division, Business Development Officer
Press Contact: Jenni Brown, Chief Marketing Officer
COLUMBUS, GA — Our Team is thrilled to announce the expansion of the BIP Wealth brand to the Columbus, GA area through a strategic partnership with The Money Advisor Group, LLC (“TMAG”). As part of a new growth strategy, we have formed BIP Alliance, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) doing business as BIP Wealth, to identify like-minded, long-established and well-respected firms with which to partner.
TMAG was founded in 2001 by Tim Money with the mission to provide individual and corporate clients with unbiased financial advisory services, including retirement planning and comprehensive wealth management. Bill Harris, Mark Buffington and Tim have known one another for more than 10 years and have long respected each other as friends, colleagues, and now business partners. The partnership between TMAG and BIP strategically unites two firms that share a people-first approach and service ethos to clients and their local communities.
TMAG is an RIA specializing in investment management and retirement planning. Through this strategic acquisition, TMAG clients and new investors in West Central Georgia, East Alabama, and the surrounding region will gain expanded access to BIP’s top-tier wealth management platform, including its private market investment solutions and advanced planning capabilities.
“From the beginning, our focus has been on taking care of our beloved clients and team members,” said Money. “Our longstanding commitment to serving our clients in every way possible has been and continues to be our primary mission, even as we discussed how a partnership with BIP Wealth would take shape. Our earliest discussions made it clear that BIP aligns with our values and priorities.”
“The TMAG acquisition will enable BIP to extend our unique value proposition in partnership with people who share our values,” said Bill Harris, CEO of BIP Wealth. “BIP is thrilled to broaden our reach into the Columbus area and surrounding markets with Tim and his impressive team. They bring a shared commitment to excellence and lifetime service to their clients, and we are happy to welcome them to the BIP family.”
“We have decades of experience connecting our clients – particularly families and individual investors – to the best and most innovative segments of the American Economy. Our unique investment platform enables clients to earn significantly higher risk-adjusted returns through a sophisticated portfolio management and planning process,” said Mark Buffington, CEO of BIP Capital and Co-founder of BIP Wealth. “Simply put, very few investment advisors are capable of delivering the same quality of investment solutions to their clients and we are honored to extend those capabilities to Tim and his team.”
Learn more about BIP Alliance here.
