As we shared during our 2026 Annual Market Report presentations, we expected the Federal Reserve to hold steady on interest rates for the foreseeable future. That view was firmly reinforced following the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, March 18th, where futures market pricing left little doubt: the current overnight rate is likely here to stay.
The futures market—where investors express their convictions with dollars rather than words—currently points to the Fed maintaining the existing Federal Funds Rate all the way through the April 28th, 2027 meeting. This rate directly influences money market yields and margin borrowing costs, making it a meaningful benchmark for investors across the board.
That said, the picture isn’t entirely static. While a prolonged pause appears most likely, there remains a meaningful and asymmetrical probability that rates could move lower before the end of 2026. Specifically, futures pricing reflects a measurable chance of cuts of 25 or even 50 basis points by year end, while the probability of a rate increase is, by contrast, nearly zero. The Fed’s “dot plot,” which captures where individual members see rates heading, doesn’t yet reflect a clear consensus, but it does leave the door open to a cut later this year.
One of the key variables to watch will be energy prices. History shows a strong correlation between oil price movements and future inflation, and with ongoing volatility in the region as the situation in Iran continues to develop, energy markets will remain an important signal. We believe futures pricing is among the best real-time tools available for tracking how these dynamics are evolving and we will continue monitoring them closely on your behalf.
As always, we’ll keep you informed as the landscape shifts. For those who want to explore the data directly, the CME FedWatch Tool offers an up-to-date view of rate expectations as priced by the market.
This post is provided for informational purposes only. Specific investments may not be suitable for all investors and no offer or recommendation of any investment or investing strategy is intended or implied by your choosing to read this post. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or investment advice regarding a particular investment or the markets in general, nor is it intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. The third-party information in this post is from sources we believe to be reliable, but BIP Wealth cannot guarantee its accuracy.
At BIP Wealth, financial literacy is not about predicting markets or chasing the hottest trends. It’s about equipping people with the confidence to make informed decisions, especially during periods of uncertainty. Our latest financial literacy workshop focused on one idea: strong financial outcomes begin with understanding the fundamentals.
Led by CJ Young, CFP®, the session brought together young adults and college students who are navigating new financial responsibilities. Rather than offering rigid rules or one-size-fits-all advice, the financial literacy workshop centered on practical frameworks attendees could apply immediately and adapt over time.
What followed was a candid, grounded conversation about money rooted in clarity, preparation, and long-term financial wellness.
Below is a recap of the key topics and takeaways shared during the event.
Five themes for improved financial literacy:
These topics are very common to have questions about, and affect us in the present, thus setting us up for the future. But the thread that connects them all is that financial progress comes from strategic planning, not perfection.
Here are each of those themes broken down to help you build towards long-term financial wellness.
Building a budget is a core element of financial responsibility. If nothing else, we must know where our money is going, and if necessary, what we can afford to drop to make sure that we spend less than we make. The most important thing to remember is that a budget isn’t about restricting yourself, but providing clarity about what’s ahead.
One of the more common budgeting strategies is the 50/30/20 rule. Here is what that looks like in practice:
With this type of budget, you can always be flexible with how much of your income you want to delegate to each tier. For example, you may want to adjust these percentages to reflect your personal priorities, variable income, or aggressive savings goals.
Overall, the 50/30/20 budget rule makes sure that your needs, savings, and investments come first, and what’s left over can support your wants.
If you’re looking to build or refine a budget, check out this 50/30/20 budget calculator.
Another important topic is emergency fund planning, particularly for financial stability and peace of mind.
An ideal emergency fund typically covers three to six months of essential expenses and is reserved for true emergencies, such as:
Effective emergency fund planning isn’t just about saving your money, but making sure that it’s accessible. While traditional savings accounts are common, options like high-yield savings accounts or money market funds may offer better interest while maintaining liquidity.
Credit card usage is often a major source of financial confusion for younger generations, especially when it comes to interest rates, minimum payments, and long-term costs.
When used responsibly, credit cards can support financial wellness by building credit and offering rewards. However, when misused, they can quietly erode your progress.
One of the most practical credit card tips is to treat your credit card like a debit card. Only spend money you already have and plan to pay off every single month.
Many cards carry interest rates above 20%, with some nearing 30%. Making only your minimum payment can not only stall paying off your card in full, but also cause you to pay even more in interest. This essentially leaves you with a higher balance than you started with.
If you’re looking for a tool to help with calculating your minimum payments, check out Bankrate’s Minimum Payment Calculator.
Here are some common credit card mistakes to look out for:
Not all debt is bad!
Mortgages, car loans, and credit cards are all common forms of debt that can help you prove you are financially responsible. That’s why paying in cash is not always the best option; responsible debt can actually help you build credit and flexibility.
Debt becomes a problem when:
The decision between buying and renting is often framed as a one-size-fits-all answer. In reality, it’s a personal choice that depends on timing, stability, and long-term financial wellness goals.
Rather than focusing on what you should do, it’s more helpful to understand when each option tends to make sense and how it aligns with your current season of life.
Buying a home can be a great option when you have clarity around your plans and are thinking long-term.
Buying is less about market timing and more about readiness and commitment. Here are things to consider about buying a home:
Renting offers flexibility, which can be especially valuable during periods of change or uncertainty.
Renting may make more sense when:
Knowing the investing basics is incredibly important for long-term planning. But the most important “basic” to understand is to start investing NOW!
By investing at a young age, there’s more time on your side. This means you can take on more risk than those who are nearing retirement.
Although all investing involves risk, a person who invests in index funds tracking the stock market has historically been rewarded over time. Since 1957, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual rate of return just over 10%.
For many people, investing begins with opening an account at a brokerage firm. These accounts allow you to invest in stocks, bonds, and index funds based on your goals and comfort with risk.
Common brokerage firms include:
These platforms provide tools and resources that help you get started without needing to manage everything on your own.
A 401(k) is a retirement account offered through an employer that allows employees to contribute a portion of their paycheck toward long-term savings. Many employers offer matching contributions, which can significantly accelerate retirement growth over time.
Contributions are typically automated, making it easier to invest consistently and build disciplined habits early in your career.
An Individual Retirement Account (IRA) is another common way to invest for retirement outside of an employer plan.
There are two primary types:
Choosing between the two often depends on income, tax considerations, and expectations about your future earnings.
The Rule of 72 demonstrates how a young investor can build a disciplined approach to investing. By practicing this rule, you can grow your assets over a long period of time while putting a modest amount of money away each month, quarter, or year.
To use the Rule of 72: Divide 72 by your expected annual return. For example, at a 10% return, an investment could double in approximately 7.2 years.
If you’re interested in seeing how far your investments could go in preparation for retirement, check out this retirement calculator from Ramsey Solutions.
Everything we have covered can be a lot to take in when you’re just getting started. Here are six things to prioritize now:
The financial literacy workshop reinforced one of our core beliefs: long-term financial confidence is built through clarity, preparation, and intentional decision-making.
Unfortunately, there are no shortcuts or guarantees to your financial goals. But with strong budgeting strategies, thoughtful emergency fund planning, responsible credit card tips, and a clear understanding of investing basics, you can strengthen your overall financial wellness over time, leaving you with less stress in the future.
As Young shared throughout the session, financial literacy isn’t about knowing everything—it’s about knowing enough to take the next step with confidence.
Here are some great resources for you to take advantage of on your journey to financial wellness.
Want to further your education in financial literacy? Here are some books we recommend.
Stanley, Thomas J, and William D Danko. The Millionaire Next Door. Taylor Trade Publishing, 1996.
Cousineau, Jake. How to Adult: Personal Finance for the Real World. Jake Cousineau, 2021.
“Emergency Fund: Why You Need One.” Vanguard, investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/emergency-fund/why-you-need-one.
“Credit Card Minimum Payment Calculator.” Bankrate, www.bankrate.com/credit-cards/tools/minimum-payment-calculator/.
“The Rewarding Distribution of US Stock Market Returns.” Dimensional Fund Advisors, 4 Apr. 2025, www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights.
“Retirement Calculator.” Ramsey Solutions, www.ramseysolutions.com/retirement/retirement-calculator?srsltid=AfmBOoqHZ5iI7ebCQ5OXR_B0xKKZtHyn8Dq9I7UcIfSaetiCaVjnxU3J.
#FinancialLiteracy #InvestingBasics #BudgetingTips
Private Credit is a large and growing category in the private market investing landscape. With exits harder to come by lately, more companies are adding debt to their capital structure (for several reasons that include avoiding direct dilution of equity). The dramatic increase in importance of private credit to the funding of companies has also led to a proliferation of funding vehicles that investors might participate in. New managers are popping up almost daily, and new vehicle types are emerging too. Co-investments, drawdown funds, public BDCs, private BDCs, and now Interval Funds are all seeing growth. These vehicles are making it easier for retail investors to include private credit in their portfolios.
In the broader credit markets, several trends are unfolding that could have a negative impact on some parts of Private Credit.
First, base rates are falling. The Fed has now lowered the overnight rate, as it should, to remove us from a restrictive stance. Many private credit strategies use floating rate loans, so falling rates will naturally lower yields. Investors should keep in mind that their return is a combination of the yield and the always changing price. Minor fluctuations in price are normal, and investors can expect yields to be lower in 2026 than they were in 2025. The long end of the yield curve is falling too, as the Fed ends quantitative tightening (no longer dumping bonds on the market to decrease its balance sheet, which was draining liquidity out of the system). We are also near a multi-year low point for credit spreads, reflecting that investors are getting paid less to take credit risk.
The combination of new money coming into Private Credit, along with a changing rate structure and price for credit risk, will certainly influence Private Credit in the larger sense. But the devil is in the details, and broad pronouncements that read something like “private credit is in trouble” are not accurate, not helpful, and outright confusing to our clients.
At BIP, we believed this would eventually happen, and we welcome the market pressure. It’s our chance to prove we know what we’re doing. This is the perfect time to show how real knowledge is so much more valuable than just knowing the headlines. Our clients are counting on us at BIP Wealth to get this right. And we have already done our homework to make sure we have a variety of evergreen strategies that we expect to do well in a variety of economic conditions.
Business Development Companies are entities that meet certain regulatory requirements created in 1980 and are close-end funds that distribute 90% of income. We track about 3 dozen publicly traded BDCs, and 2025 returns through 12/31/25 range from +16.75% to -27.38%, with more in negative territory than positive. This is markedly different from the returns we are seeing in the vehicles we’re using, and you may notice that few survived the pullback in credit markets during 2022 unscathed.
BSLs tend to be of lower quality and lack the covenants and remedies that are the hallmark of our strategies. BSLs are originated by banks, securitized, and then traded daily. Some might equate this to juggling chainsaws when credit markets turn sour—you want to drop them as quickly as you can to avoid getting your hand cut off.
These are, by nature, not diversified. But here again, the details are important. Many are convertible notes, which in reality are equity deals that pay a yield to the investor and sit above other equity investments in terms of their priority. We have a long history of enjoying some of our best equity returns from these investments.
We expect to be able to prove to our clients that your trust in us is warranted. But this comes with the obligation to explain our prudent process in a world of scary headlines. If the risky end of the private credit market does start to experience significant stress, some of our clients may become concerned.
If you would like to learn more about our Private Credit strategies and if they might be a fit for you, the BIP Wealth team is here to help. Contact us today to be connected with a trusted advisor.
This post is provided for informational purposes only. Specific investments may not be suitable for all investors and no offer or recommendation of any investment or investing strategy is intended or implied by your choosing to read this post. Privately traded offerings may only be available to investors who meet certain qualification statuses.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or investment advice regarding a particular investment or the markets in general, nor is it intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risks including loss of principal.
If you have been consuming financial news this week, you will know the stock market has taken a bit of a plunge due to the tariffs announced on Wednesday afternoon. This comes on the heels of a volatile stock market in the first quarter. We wanted to give you BIP Wealth’s perspective on these recent events, although we are not ready to predict the final outcome.
We think the best way to understand what’s happening is to consider the actions of the four forces at play:
The current administration is using tariffs to re-write the economic relationship between the United States and other economies. For many years, other countries have imposed tariffs on U.S. goods and services that have been a bit lopsided against us. The U.S. has imposed its own tariffs on some imported goods in an effort to protect workers, while at the same time there have been numerous “free trade” agreements with favored nations. The history of tariffs goes back hundreds of years, but in more recent times the U.S. has emerged through it all as the world’s leading consumer economy of imported goods, while oftentimes struggling to export its own products while struggling with downward wage pressure at home. These newly announced tariffs are a powerful negotiating tool designed to leverage our consumer appetite and economic strength, but it is impossible to know where this will all settle out and when.
China has already announced retaliatory tariffs, although one could argue that the new U.S. tariffs were in retaliation for a massive trade imbalance that China protected. Over the next week we can expect to hear similar announcements from dozens of countries. This progression into a “trade war” could have a significant negative impact on the global economy, however many countries are expected to reach out to the Trump administration to negotiate. Some of these responses will likely be an effort to make the kind of “phenomenal offer” that President Trump has hinted he would be looking for. It is impossible to predict how this will end, but we will be watching to see the terms of the first few deals to see what it takes to settle these issues.
For the past year, the Fed has enjoyed owning what is often called the “Fed Put.” This is borrowing terminology from the options markets, and refers to the idea that if the economy gets in trouble then the Fed can respond by lowering interest rates to prevent a recession. However, this only works when inflation is contained. Generally speaking, when interest rates are lowered it can cause inflation to rise; and with the Fed having bungled this quite a bit in the post-pandemic era they will likely be slow to move. Today President Donald Trump called on the Fed to lower overnight rates immediately. But tariffs on imported goods are expected to double the rate of inflation in 2025 to perhaps a rate of 5%, so any move by the Fed that could make that worse is quite the gamble. The Fed has a mandate to foster full employment, stable long term interest rates, and low inflation; but it does not have a mandate to do exactly what is being asked of it now. It is impossible to know how the Fed will respond at this point, although we will be listening intently to find out.
For the moment, the idea of tariffs seems to enjoy broad support among working Americans. Many families have watched in frustration for decades as furniture, textile, and manufacturing jobs have been offshored. Real wage growth in non-technical jobs has been slow, and it is correct to think that globalization has worsened the economic fortunes for many Americans. At the same time, we have enjoyed the benefits of lower prices on goods manufactured in low labor cost countries in Asia and elsewhere. Wall Street voices have been highly critical of the scope and pace of the new tariff policies this week, but that group is simply not the President’s constituency. If we fall into a recession, and American unemployment spikes, it will likely be happening around the globe even worse.
Understanding the situation through these four forces may not give you any comfort right now. But this is how we see it, and we’re watching events unfold just like you. Let’s keep in mind that a relief rally could be upon us at any time, and it could be a big mistake to assume that the pace of the sell-off will simply continue.
In our Annual Market Report earlier this year we suggested some steps you could take to prepare for this kind of uncertainty. Click the link below to check out Eric Cramer’s Webinar from Q1…
As a reminder, here are our 4 Key Themes for 2025 and what we’ve seen so far:
Brace for a Tech/Crypto Crash (Leverage has Created Systematic Risk for Most Assets)
Well, tech stocks did crash. We have strategies in place to help clients with large concentrations to mitigate risk.
It’s Time to Diversify (The Public Stock Market is Over-Concentrated)
We suggested that indexing would not be sufficient due to the concentration in public equities, and that using private credit in particular could be an effective way for many clients to possibly increase their expected return while lowering their expected risk.
Financial Planning is Critical (Look for Hidden and Unnecessary Risk)
We did our best to suggest that some clients may have more exposure to public equities than they “needed” to have. This was in addition to the other benefits of financial planning, such as risk mitigation through an insurance review.
Safer Assets Can be Productive (Treasurys Still Offer Inflation-Beating Yields)
We offer clients BIP Short-Term Tactical, which is our proprietary trading strategy providing an alternative to holding cash in banks. The primary goals of the strategy include achieving a rate of return higher than banks commonly offer, capital preservation, and liquidity, while mitigating risk.
While we can’t predict the future, we strongly suggest having a well-rounded financial plan. This is a great time to take a look at your particular situation and work with a BIP Personal Wealth Advisor so you can take advantage of all the tools we have at our disposal.
Thanks for reading, and please know that we will continue to update you as events unfold.
This post is provided for informational purposes only. Specific investments may not be suitable for all investors and no offer or recommendation of any investment or investing strategy is intended. The opinions in this commentary are as of the posting date and are subject to change. Information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee the facts cited are accurate or complete. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or investment advice regarding a particular investment or the markets in general, nor is it intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. We may execute transactions in securities that may not be consistent with what is mentioned here. Investors should consult their financial advisor on the strategy best for them. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risks including loss of principal.
Author: Eric Cramer, CFP® CFA®
September’s strong jobs report surprised some, but we’ve been telling our clients the economy is fundamentally strong all year. The short version of what we learned with the release of the September jobs report is this: We added 254,000 jobs in September, which is much stronger than the 150,000 consensus forecast.
What does this mean for the economy?
It was widely reported in late August that the BLS had a massive revision downwards in job growth from 3/2023 to 3/2024 (they revise every year). They reduced the amount of job growth by 818,000 jobs, which is one of the largest downward revisions ever. This stoked concerns of a “jobs recession” even though employers are struggling to find workers and other data (such as job openings) confirm a generally strong labor market.
It was less widely reported that in September, real GDP through the end of 2023 was revised up by 1.2%, and 2024 Q2 was revised up .1%. This was mostly due to stronger consumer spending, a metric we have consistently tracked (while also debunking the notion that consumers had run out of money).
It looks like the Fed’s slow pace of lowering rates hasn’t pushed us into a recession. And the Weekly Economic Index (WEI predicts GDP) suggests we aren’t headed for a recession anytime soon.
What does this mean for interest rates?
The strong economy may mean the Fed will take its time lowering interest rates. Current futures pricing shows a 25 bps cut on 11/7 and another 25 bps cut 12/18. Inflation is generally under control, but if energy prices spike due to increased tensions in the Middle East this could affect the data. But it’s safe to expect that we can continue to earn a yield on the short end of the Treasury yield curve that is well above the rate of inflation, and that our Short-Term Tactical strategy will have a useful role to play in client portfolios for the foreseeable future.
At the same time, longer term yields are on the move upwards. If this continues, then we will eventually end up with a so-called “normal” yield curve where investors earn more than the rate of inflation across all terms (even though we haven’t seen much of this for decades). This would be great for investors and businesses, and is what we can expect if the Fed eventually gets to a neutral stance and lets markets be free. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect that by the end of 2025 we have the short end of the curve at about 3-3.5%, with the long end of the curve at 4-6%. But there is a lot going on in the world right now that could change the picture between now and then.
What does this mean for the stock market?
As we’ve been saying all year, a strong economy that doesn’t go into a recession suggests it’s a good time to be a stock market investor. A Fed that is lowering rates, and promises to lower them as much as needed to protect the economy, is called the “Fed Put.” We’ve got that right now, and that’s about all a stock market investor could hope for.
But that doesn’t mean there won’t be some companies that aren’t big losers. Individual stock volatility is still quite high, and we think that will continue. Macro events, along with changes in technology that include the emergence of AI as an essential business tool, will re-order the competitive landscape. Many billions of dollars are being invested in innovation all over the world, and especially in the U.S. This isn’t happening in a vacuum—it’s happening with the explicit intention of changing which companies win, and which fall by the wayside. That makes it a good time to be diversified, and for many investors a good time to look at investment strategies like our Concentrated Stock strategy to manage risk.
This quarter’s theme is, “How to Prepare for Market Disruptions.” Listen in as BIP Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Eric Cramer, covers what’s going on in the financial markets and how we’re advising our clients.
